Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.542362 2.710063 2.888908 3.094817 3.326593 3.580915 3.883159
2025-03-09 2.284130 2.508742 2.761034 3.068753 3.438687 3.875539 4.440650
2025-03-16 2.127227 2.384312 2.683620 3.064129 3.544722 4.146087 4.981250
2025-03-23 2.031100 2.314345 2.653979 3.101181 3.690997 4.469140 5.626297
2025-03-30 1.918232 2.211695 2.571188 3.057043 3.719377 4.630545 6.064534
2025-04-06 1.822486 2.121856 2.495167 3.010961 3.734545 4.767836 6.481909
2025-04-13 1.726039 2.024400 2.401524 2.931550 3.692045 4.811233 6.751262
2025-04-20 1.683957 1.993435 2.391387 2.963102 3.808037 5.102913 7.489911
2025-04-27 1.655811 1.978229 2.400004 3.019628 3.963955 5.475351 8.460840
2025-05-04 1.628437 1.961967 2.405241 3.070218 4.113928 5.857541 9.558135
2025-05-11 1.578243 1.912307 2.361085 3.044062 4.138321 6.023519 10.246433
2025-05-18 1.532943 1.867162 2.320639 3.020123 4.162963 6.191585 10.990178
2025-05-25 1.489466 1.823480 2.281115 2.996470 4.188386 6.369890 11.838816
2025-06-01 1.449468 1.783039 2.244292 2.974512 4.214480 6.553606 12.779516
2025-06-08 1.417475 1.752415 2.220044 2.970352 4.270580 6.806033 14.034522
2025-06-15 1.398625 1.739408 2.220698 3.005534 4.399928 7.234958 16.093766
2025-06-22 1.360239 1.697129 2.175912 2.963646 4.382782 7.337712 17.094959
2025-06-29 1.323614 1.656199 2.131528 2.919891 4.358261 7.420064 18.081654
2025-07-06 1.280734 1.605042 2.069959 2.844433 4.267307 7.333437 18.339266
2025-07-13 1.266922 1.595514 2.071106 2.874422 4.383444 7.767602 21.244264
2025-07-20 1.259597 1.595045 2.085854 2.928122 4.551749 8.371550 25.796143
2025-07-27 1.251125 1.592494 2.097084 2.976152 4.713655 9.002129 31.748595
2025-08-03 1.226365 1.565000 2.068115 2.951323 4.719546 9.195325 35.079370